Winning hearts and minds on Twitter – where does each party stand in each province for the 2015 Canadian Election?

 

1. A quick look at the distribution of the seats between provinces and understanding the key battlegrounds

 

Ontario

121

35.80%

BC

42

12.43%

Alberta

34

10.06%

Quebec

78

23.08%

Manitoba

14

4.14%

Saskatchewan

14

4.14%

Nova Scotia

11

3.25%

New Brunswick

10

2.96%

Newfoundland

7

2.07%

PEI

4

1.18%

Territories

3

0.89%

House of Commons

338

Source: wikipedia

  • The provinces of Ontario, BC, Alberta and Quebec, represent a total of 81% of the seats in the House.
  • The prairie provinces represent 8.3% of the seats
  • The maritime provinces represent 9.5% of the seats
  • The territories do not have political parties and are governed under the consensus government system

2. Defining the population of Canadians who are politically active on Twitter

We defined the population of interest as the total number of Canadians who at least follow one of the major political candidates

Population of Canadians who follow the 4 main canadidates
Canada 1030924
Ontario 431893
BC 125151
Alberta 117039
Quebec 119955
Manitoba 27396
Saskatchewan 23917
Nova Scotia 33184
New Brunswick 17926
Newfoundland 11640
PEI 5206
Territories 3464

Source: Tweepsmap 


3. A closer look at the fight to win over voters on Twitter in each key provinces 

Interactive maps of Candidates’ individual followers data: (toggle between country, province and city level)

Thomas Mulcair  | Justin TrudeauStephen Harper |  Elizabeth May

Chart 2: Provincial share of Twitter followers by each candidate

Thomas Mulclair

Stephen Harper

Justin Trudeau

Elizabeth May

Ontario

13.43%

69.74%

60.02%

14.05%

BC

14.54%

59.19%

57.72%

23.74%

Alberta

10.77%

80.76%

45.86%

11.45%

Quebec

24.76%

52.77%

75.21%

10.21%

Manitoba

13.57%

69.43%

59.45%

13.73%

Saskatchewan

14.25%

75.16%

51.15%

12.01%

Nova Scotia

13.77%

53.05%

71.75%

18.39%

New Brunswick

15.48%

60.52%

67.91%

15.29%

Newfoundland

16.22%

57.63%

76.21%

11.74%

PEI

16.27%

53.05%

74.38%

16.62%

Territories

20.35%

65.50%

66.14%

23.21%

Date: September 2nd, 2015

Source: Tweepsmap

Screen Shot 2015-09-09 at 1.40.29 PM

 

 

Ontario: Harper leading by a large margin; Green Party slightly ahead of NDP

Stephen Harper leads by a significant margin of 9% ahead of Justin Trudeau in 2nd place. Notably, the Green Party candidate Elizabeth May (14.05%) is ahead of the NDP (13.43%) by a slight margin

British Columbia: Conservatives lead by a small margin

Stephen Harper leads by a small margin ahead of Justin Trudeau

Alberta, Manitoba: Conservatives hold tight to stronghold 

Little surprise here as Stephen Harper almost doubles the share of followers of Justin Trudeau in Alberta

In Manitoba, the lead is smaller for Harper (69.4%) vs 59.45% for the Liberals

Quebec: Liberals ahead by wide margin

Justin Trudeau (75.2%) is ahead of the 2nd place Stephen Harper by a wide margin (52.77%)

Maritime provinces: Liberals ahead in all provinces

The liberals have a lead in share in each single one of the maritime provinces by a sizeable margin

Weekly change shows NDP, Liberals gaining grounds on Conservatives in key provinces in September

 

Ontario: NDP gaining followers ~3 times as fast as Conservatives; Liberals gaining followers 76% faster than Conservatives

BC, Alberta: NDP gaining followers ~2 times as fast as Conservatives; Liberals gaining followers 38% faster than Conservatives

Screen Shot 2015-09-09 at 1.42.50 PM

 

Weekly change % – September 2 – September 9th
Thomas Mulcair Stephen Harper Justin Trudeau
From Canada 1.79% 0.58% 0.90%
Ontario 2.19% 0.55% 0.98%
BC 1.91% 0.66% 0.91%
Alberta 1.97% 0.62% 0.96%
Quebec 0.84% 0.59% 0.60%
Manitoba 1.43% 0.62% 0.83%
Saskatchewan 2.49% 0.81% 1.23%
Nova Scotia 1.55% 0.56% 0.76%
New Brunswick 1.87% 0.60% 1.04%
Newfoundland 2.33% 0.42% 0.97%
PEI 2.01% 0.65% 0.83%
Territories 2.27% 0.62% 0.92%

 

 

NDP Weekly Change

ThomasMulcair NDP
Week of 2015-09-02 2015-09-09 Weekly growth%
Canada 150135 152818 1.79%
Ontario 58009 59282 2.19%
BC 18194 18541 1.91%
Alberta 12606 12854 1.97%
Quebec 29698 29947 0.84%
Manitoba 3719 3772 1.43%
Saskatchewan 3409 3494 2.49%
Nova Scotia 4569 4640 1.55%
New Brunswick 2775 2827 1.87%
Newfoundland 1888 1932 2.33%
PEI 847 864 2.01%
Territories 705 721 2.27%

 

Conservatives Weekly Change

PMHarper

Conservatives

Week of

2015-09-02

2015-09-09

Weekly growth%

From Canada

689992

693998

0.58%

Ontario

301203

302869

0.55%

BC

74076

74568

0.66%

Alberta

94517

95103

0.62%

Quebec

63300

63676

0.59%

Manitoba

19020

19138

0.62%

Saskatchewan

17975

18121

0.81%

Nova Scotia

17605

17704

0.56%

New Brunswick

10849

10914

0.60%

Newfoundland

6708

6736

0.42%

PEI

2762

2780

0.65%

Territories

2269

2283

0.62%

 

Liberals Weekly Changes

JustinTrudeau

Liberals

Week of

2015-09-02

2015-09-09

Weekly growth%

From Canada

620825

626434

0.90%

Ontario

259230

261759

0.98%

BC

72234

72894

0.91%

Alberta

53674

54189

0.96%

Quebec

90217

90760

0.60%

Manitoba

16288

16424

0.83%

Saskatchewan

12234

12385

1.23%

Nova Scotia

23809

23990

0.76%

New Brunswick

12173

12300

1.04%

Newfoundland

8871

8957

0.97%

PEI

3872

3904

0.83%

Territories

2291

2312

0.92%

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